Tuesday, May 26, 2015

India - Regaining its status or emerging economy?

It is fashionable to use the term "Developing" or "Emerging" economies for India and China. As if they were never developed in the first place or as if they are "emerging" from eternal doom.

Factual status is that India and China are simply regaining their original status in world economy.

Some facts from the study of Brazilian economist Paul Bairoch:

1. In 1750 China contributed 33 % of world's GDP and India contributed 25 % of world's GDP. At that time UK contributed only 1.8 % and USA 0.1 %.

2. As India slipped to colonization its share towards world's GDP continuously declined:

 - By 1800 India's share in world's GDP dropped down to 20 %
 - By 1830 ...............................................dropped down to 17 %
 - By 1880 ...............................................dropped down to  8 %
 - By 1900 ...............................................dropped down to 1.7 % (less than 2 %)

In less than 150 years India's economy collapsed.

By 1900 China contributed only 6 % of world's GDP.

US and UK that contributed less than 2 % of world's GDP in 1750,  contributed 41 %  by 1900.

3. When this study of Paul Bairoch came out, there was a huge outcry. A prominent western economist Angus Madison was asked to research this fact since 1 AD.

4. Madison's initial article refuted Bairoch's study but eventually corroborated his study. His study showcased the following:


1 AD: India at 34 % was the biggest contributor to world GDP. China was next.
1000 AD: India 28 %. China next.
1400 AD: India at first position. China next.
1500 AD: India at first position. China next
1600 AD: China at first position. India next.
1700 AD: India regained. China next
1750 AD: China at first position. India next.

Madison's study broke the myth about Western work ethics and established that colonization and exploitation was largely responsible for crash of Asian economies and rise of western economies.


(These ideas are taken from lecture of Shri Gurumurthy and my Guru Prof. Vaidyanathan)

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