Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Values of Key Indicators - as on 15th April 2015

(Date of last Change indicated in bracket)

Bank Rate: 9 % (28th Jan 2014)

CRR: 4 % (9th Feb 2013)

SLR: 21.5 % (3rd Feb 2015)

Repo Rate: 7.50 % (4th Mar 2015)

Reverse Repo Rate: 6.50 % (4th Mar 2015)

Developments in April 2015

15 April : Wholesale inflation slips to -2.33 % in March as against -2.06 % in february.

15 April:  India’s growth is likely to improve from 7.2% in 2014 to 7.5% both in 2015 and 2016 China’s growth is projected to slip from 7.4% in 2014 to 6.8% this year and further down to 6.3% next year.

For the first time since 1999, India will outgrow China and its BRIC peers with a GDP growth of 7.5% in 2015 and 2016 (calendar years) the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections said.

13 April: India's annual consumer price inflation unexpectedly slowed down to a three-month low of 5.17 per cent in March as food prices moderated.

8th April: Moody's raised India's credit rating outlook to positive from stable, marking a robust endorsement of policy initiatives by the governments. Rival rating agency Fitch was more circumspect, praising the reform initiatives but leaving the outlook unchanged. The three big rating agencies — Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch — have India at the lowest investment grade, just a notch above 'junk' status.

7th April’15: To target 6% CPI inflation by Jan 2016 & 4% by FY18-end. RBI Policy declaration

7th April’15: GDP growth under new methodology: 7.8% in FY16. RBI Policy declaration

2nd April'15: —New Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020 declared.

 TP2015-20. introduces two new schemes, namely Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) for export of specified goods to specified markets and Services Exports from India Scheme (SEIS) for increasing exports of notified services, in place of a plethora of schemes earlier, with different conditions for eligibility and usage.

RBI Proposal on 29 March'15

RBI has proposed to limit exposure of a Bank to a Business Group to 25 % of its capital down from existing 55 %.

Black Money - Comment by Prof. Vaidyanathan

23 March 2015

Today, the broad estimate is that black money that is stashed abroad is around $1.5 trillion - Prof. Vaidyanathan, IIM Bangalore

Mumbai realty developers' debt rises

Overall, listed Mumbai developers are battling higher inventory levels. They have unsold under-construction area worth Rs 53,400 crore, a Kotak report said, adding developers have Rs 36,800 crore in coming launches, almost half of these from south-central Mumbai.

Developers are not able to sell assets faster and cash flow improvement is not happening as the real estate sector is yet to recover.

Reference: http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/mumbai-realty-developers-debt-rises-115031600045_1.html

RBI step on 4th March' 2015

RBI cut Repo Rate by 25 basis points from 7.75 per cent to 7.50 per cent.

The repo rate was last cut from 8 per cent to 7.75 per cent on January 15.

RBI Governor said that many important and valuable structural reforms are embedded in the Budget which will help improve supply over the medium term.

The RBI move has enthused corporates, which have been clamouring for a rate cut.

RBI step - on 3rd Feb 15

No Change in Interest Rates

SLR reduced by 50 basis points to 21.5 % 

CRR remains unchanged

Current Account Deficit at 1.3 % of GDP for 2014-15

Inflation Target 6 % by Jan 2016.

GDP growth estimate under old base for 2014-15: 5.5 %

GDP growth estimate under old base for 2015-16: 6.5 %

Limit of Foreign Exchange Remittance doubled to USD 250,000 per person annually

RBI Move on 15 Jan

RBI has decreased Repo rate by 25 basis points.

—Rate Cut Indicates Shift in Monetary Policy Stance: Arvind Subramanian

—More Monetary Policy Easing possible – Arvind S.

—Finance Ministry welcomes RBI Rate Cut as Inflation Drops

—UBI cuts base rate after this announcement.

—Bank Nifty hits record high as RBI slashes repo rate; auto, realty stocks rally

—Repo rate now 7.75 %. —Reverse Repo Rate 6.75 %.

January'15 Updates

January 30, 2015
New base year for GDP is 2011-12. GDP growth rate is 6.9 % for 2013-14. (As per earlier base year it was 4.7 %)

January 15, 2015
The rupee soared by 53 paise to trade at nearly two-month high of 61.65 against the dollar

January 15, 2015
RBI cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 7.75 per cent.

January 14, 2015
WPI inflation rises marginally to 0.11% in December from 0 % in Nov’14

December 2014 updates

December 31, 2014
India's fiscal deficit was 5.25 trillion rupees ($83.08 billion) during April-November, or 98.9 percent of the full-year target, government data showed on Wednesday.

December 12, 2014
Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan today said the current account deficit (CAD), which has widened to USD 10.1 billion or 2.1 per cent of GDP in July- September period, is still at comfortable level although there are risks.

December 3 2014
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has retained its growth estimate for 2014-15 at 5.5 per cent

December 3 2014
RBI keeps key policy rates unchanged.

Developments - Sept- Nov' 2014

November 14, 2014
Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation declined to 1.77% in October, down from 2.38% in September.

November 12, 2014
Consumer inflation (CPI) fell to a record low of 5.52 per cent in October, dragged down by sharp drops in food and oil prices.

October 27, 2014
CAD down from 4.7 % to 1.7 % of GDP. Foreign exchange reserves up from $270 Bn to $315 Bn

14th October 2014
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation dipped to a 59-month low of 2.38% in September 2014 from 3.74% in August 2014.

30th September 2014
Q4 FY15 GDP growth projected at 5.6%, FY16 GDP growth projected at 6.3%

30th September 2014
Keeps key policy rates, CRR, SLR unchanged. RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 8%, reverse repo rate stays at 7%

29th September 2014
RBI governor Raghuram Rajan unlikely to cut rates in September 30 monetary policy

15th September 2014
India is the 4th largest smartphone market globally after China, US & Brazil with 111 mn users (GSMA)

Hello All

Hello All.

I will use this blog to post latest updates on economy - primarily Indian, but will also try to post latest International developments also.